Migration Alert - March 19-25

 The next 7 days look great for migration so I thought I'd write a post. But first a quick recap of last week;

March 8th and 9th were dominated by overcast skies and southwest winds, however the migrants were few and far between. I was expecting this in a way, since there was still quite a lot of snow on the ground and while it did feel "springy".. it was still very much early March. On Wednesday (the 10th) the birds started trickling in though; decent numbers of Red-winged Blackbirds, Common Grackles and American Robins, smaller numbers of things like Rusty Blackbirds, Brown-headed Cowbirds, Eastern Meadowlarks, Turkey Vultures etc... (for the list of daily arrivals check out the sidebar on the right of the page). On Thursday things ramped up, Canada Geese and large blackbird flocks everywhere, dabbling ducks (wigeon, pintail, GW teal, Shoveler) flying around and in the fields... so yeah, a nice "first push" of stuff!

Now on to the future ~

- Mar 20 (Saturday)

Not expecting much. It will be sunny and mild (8°C), so stuff will still be moving, but the winds are predominantly out of the west. 

(Note for all these wind maps I have it set for about 1km up, as that's the height a lot of birds migrate at)

- Mar 21 (Sunday)

Winds predicted to be southwest all day, which coupled with the sunny skies and very warm temps (upwards to 14°C) should produce a good migration day.

- Mar 22 (Monday

Another day of strong SW wind and sunny skies. The tempature is meant to climb to 15°C or something crazy. Birds will be using this prime weather to move en masse.

- Mar 23 (Tuesday)

Low pressure system moving up the midwest of the continent... Bruce should be getting nice S/SE winds all day, which although lighter than the previous days wind, it's still south! Which in the spring means birds for us. In my opinion south/southeast is better than southwest for birding in Bruce, as it concentrates the migrants along Lake Huron more. And while birds will definitely still move with southwest, I think they spread out more (in South Bruce anyway). 

- Mar 24 (Wednesday)

Looks like it could be a great migration day for this time of year. The strong southwest/south winds associated with the low pressure will hopefully bring a new batch of migrants in. There will probably be rain for a lot of the day though, so the timing of that will effect how much we get.

- Mar 25 (Thursday)

More strong S/SW! It just doesn't end! Again rain is a possibly... and this is getting kind of far into the future so who knows how it will actually play out, but if it turns out anything like this it should be another good migration day. 

Just look at these temperatures..

~ Bird Predictions ~

Another large push of early migrants like blackbirds and dabbling ducks should start coming through on Sunday and continue all week. 

I'm expecting a notable increase in the following species; Turkey Vulture, Eastern Bluebird, Eastern Meadowlark, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Killdeer, Song Sparrow, American Kestral, Northern Flicker, Belted Kingfisher, Fox Sparrow, Dark-eyed Junco, Red-shouldered Hawk, Northern Harrier as well as all the dabbling ducks. 

It's peak time for rare geese in South Bruce (white-fronted and Ross's), so I'm expecting a small push of those species too.

As for new arrivals (as in the first migrants of the species in the county this year) here's my personal list of birds, though some are pretty unlikely; Wilson's Snipe, Winter Wren, Great Blue Heron, Pied-billed Grebe, Great Blue Heron, Tree Swallow, Pectoral Sandpiper, Greater Yellowlegs, Blue-winged Teal, Eastern Pheobe.

In the future I plan on making predictions about rarities... but it's still pretty early so I'm not going to. My one guess would be a euro wigeon in the next 2 weeks.

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So, in conclusion it should be a great week for migration in the area, get out there as much as you can. My pick for best days would be Tuesday or Thursday, but the whole week will be good.

I should emphasize that it's important to moderate expectations this time of year, after all it is still March. I'm in no way responsible if the birds I mentioned don't show up.

Migrants incoming - March 8th - 11th

 Looks like Bruce County will finally be getting some birds next week!

Day by day here's the rundown...

- Monday (Mar 8th) 

Strong southwest winds (coming all the way from Texas) are forecasted to start early on Monday night and continue through the day. For Bruce it might be more west winds, so we may not get any "real" south winds until the next day. It's still going to be relatively cold (3°C)... so probably won't be too exciting.

- Tuesday (Mar 9)

Looking good.. fairly strong S/SW wind all day and temperature going up to 11°C(!). It calls to be clear out too, so that bodes well for diurnal migration. Tuesday is meant to be warm overnight too, only going down to 6°C or so.

- Wednesday (Mar 10)

More strong S/SW wind, and another day of possible double digits. A large rain system is meant to pass through at some point, but it's still a long way off.

- Thusday (Mar 11)

Too far away to really know much, but it calls to be the same as the previous few days for the morning, but switching back to N wind and cooler temps by the evening. This will be the end of the warm spell.

~ Bird Predictions ~

Red-winged Blackbirds, Common Grackles, Brown-headed Cowbirds and American Robins should show up in decent numbers, at least in the southern part of the county.

 Early waterfowl should be moving, stuff like Tundra Swans and Northern Pintails will begin popping up. I wouldn't be surprised if a few Cackling or Greater White-fronted Geese show up around Kincardine. 

I'm also expecting a first push of other early migrants like Killdeer, American Woodcock and Turkey Vulture.

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An important thing to note is snow depth. Basically the entire county has some snowcover, ranging from 10cm-25cm in depth. So even though Monday and Tuesday have south winds, the birds have nowhere to go when they get here. I'm talking things like Killdeer and American Woodcock, which prefer open fields and patches of open forest edge habitat. Similarly there will be no mass push of robins until the ground is open. So if Wednesday and Thursday deliver the predicted rain, that could really help things along. According to Windy's snow depth model, southwesteen Ontario should be basically snow free by Friday.

Everywhere in Bruce should see some migrants, however the southern part of the county will likely see them first as usual in the spring. Tobermory and a lot of North Bruce may need a bit of time yet.

So go birding next week!

(Screenshots taken from  windy.com)

Bruce County Weather Birding

 Decided I'm going to try something new here. The idea is updates on current weather systems/seasonal birding for the Bruce County region. I made a seperate page for this so it doesn't cluter up main blog. Predictions for what will show when during the spring and ideas for what locations would be the most productive on certain days. Basically just me talking!