Migration Forecast -- May 15th - May 17th

 

Since my last post not a lot has happened. There has been a small trickle of new birds, but no major movement. Today (May 14) there was a nice northbound movement of Bobolinks, Orioles and warblers, but besides that it hasn't been overly birdy. A few interesting things have been going on though. Notably the lingering northern species. Rough-legged Hawks and American Tree Sparrows are still around in decent numbers and there are still a few Snowy Owls and Golden Eagles in North Bruce. Also there's been an increase in Pine Siskins and Evening Grosbeaks, as both of these species seem to be peaking around now.

Now on to the forecast. 

After a week+ of being stuck in a blocking pattern with a huge high pressure system hovering over the northeast...there is finally hope. The high will begin to move east out over the Atlantic and dissipate by Sunday, then we get some much needed south winds. The next few days will see very light south winds, however the birds are a week or so behind schedule so they'll move. Most of southern Ontario should see a massive increase of songbirds by Monday and into the early week.

- May 15

Mix of very light south and north wind. Birds will definitely be moving, however I don't think it will be the big night. Still, there should be an influx of birds, especially in South Bruce. 

- May 16

Finally the high pressure is gone! Light south wind overnight (almost non-existent) and basically no rain in the way to interrupt movement. I think there will be a large increase in songbirds all over the county on Sunday, so get out if you can!

 

- May 17

More light south winds. Should be another great day, again likely not too much rain around to get in the way. Things are only going to get better after each day, so get out if you can. The whole county should be good.

As you can see there is some rain around, but as of now it doesn't look too bad. Clear path for northbound birds

Birdcast agrees, solid movement in the northeast. 

~ Bird Predictions ~

There should be a massive influx in songbirds over the next 3-4 days. All the warblers, orioles, grosbeaks, tanagers, bunting etc. A lot of the earlier warblers (palm, black-throated green, black-and-white etc) will be peaking, while later species like Magnolia, Tennessee and American Redstart will begin arriving in numbers. We should finally get some flycatchers too. Really the birding will just be great, so new birds everywhere. Say good bye to your lingering tree sparrows and juncos though!

Here are my predictions for new birds for Bruce this year 

Likely/very likely

- Bay-breasted Warbler 

- Blackpoll Warbler

- Canada Warbler 

- Black Tern

- Short-billed Dowitcher

- Semiplamated Plover

- Black-billed Cuckoo

- Philadelphia Vireo 

- Eastern Wood-pewee

Maybe?

- Yellow-billed Cuckoo 

- Sedge Wren

- Olive-sided Flycatcher 

- American Golden-plover

- Ruddy Turnstone

- Common Nighthawk 

Rarities 

Tough weather for predicting rarities. I'm going with a southern overshoot... something like Blue Grosbeak, Summer Tanager or White-eyed Vireo, southern warbler. Maybe another Lesser Black-backed Gull or two? Willet or something by Kincardine area? Who knows, birds are weird.

I'll update again on Monday ~ It's that time of year.

Also tried an impromptu weather video. Needs work

https://youtu.be/Nb0HmlcRnYg