Migration Forecast -- May 18th - May 19th

 

Well, migration has been bananas since my last update. During the last two days the trees just exploded and full leaf out is only a few days away. This has certainly made viewing conditions more challenging in the forest. Saturday (May 15) and Sunday saw a massive influx of songbirds... warblers, tanagers, orioles etc. We went from a week behind schedule to ~wham~, full out spring migration. Numerous "late species" including Mourning Warbler and Olive-sided Flycatcher were seen, plus basically every expected warbler species. The county also saw a noticeable decrease in lingering birds like juncos and tree sparrows, one day they are everywhere and the next they're gone. 

The rarity highlights were Red-necked Phalarope at Kincardine Lagoons and a Yellow-throated Warbler on the Nothern Peninsula. 

The next week should be the best birding week of the spring for Bruce County, the weather looks phenomenal from a migration standpoint. Note that the next two days are great for migrants, but not so much for fallouts. There really isn't much rain in the way, so birds will be using this opportunity to push northward. Without rain to force them down a lot of birds will continue right over Bruce (and southern Ontario in general), so for us birders it may be a bit trickier to find the big warbler flocks. Don't get me wrong it will still be amazing.  

Because the weather is so exciting this week I'll be doing more frequent updates, so this post is only covering tomorrow and Wednesday. 

- May 18

Fairly light southwest/west winds overnight for Bruce Co. As you can see on the map below, the stronger winds are over the midwest and Ontario has relativity light/non existent winds. There is basically no rain in the way so that's good. I don't see tomorrow as the best day of the week, but it's peak season and birds will definitely move. I imagine it will be somewhat like today... just a lot of new birds around. As has been the case for the past few days, Kincardine Lagoons and the Lake Huron coast should be hopping, but anywhere can be good really. 

- May 19

Slightly better in my opinion. The long distance south wind is closer to Ontario and southern Ontario enjoys stronger (30-40kph) south/southwest winds. Again probably no rain overnight so it should be great for nocturnal migrant (and diurnal ones). Because there isn't rain to stop them it's not fallout weather, but there should be another big surge of migrants. 

(note all these wind maps are for 800mb heights, as that's where the birds are)

Have a peak at the precipitation maps for both days. As you can see there isn't too much rain in our area.

~ Bird Predictions ~

This whole week will be the peak of spring migration for us in southern Ontario, from a numbers perspective anyway. Every day this week will be see highs above 20°C, so it will be great weather to be outside in. I'm sure most birders know this, but especially when there's heat birding tends to be best in the hours around dusk and dawn, so get out early if you can. Expect warblers en masse, plus our first big push of flycatchers and vireos. Species like Baltimore Oriole and Indigo Bunting will be at their peak numbers this week as well. Say farwell to the lingering Rough-legged Hawks. They've had a good run staying this late, but these ideal conditions should be the push they need to leave. Also I almost guarantee the Cerulean Warbler are back at Greenock Swamp.

One piece of advice ~ if it rains check your local shorebird spot immediately! Good time of year to find knots, white-rumps, stilts etc... but they usually don't stay very long. I did a previous post on shorebirds so check that out if you want more info.

Here's my best bets for new arrivals (bird that haven't been seen in the county this year)

.

Likely/fairly likely 

- Yellow-bellied Flycatcher 

- Yellow-billed Cuckoo

- Sanderling 

- Semiplamated Sandpiper (!)

Maybe?

- Ruddy Turnstone

- Cerulean Warbler 

Rarities 

Peak rarity season so it's hard to say what exactly will show up... but something rare will this week I'm sure. I'll break down my predictions a bit by likelihood (as likely as a rarity can get).

The southern overshoots are always near the top of the list this time of year. I'm talking Yellow-throated, Worm-eating Kentucky and Hooded Warblers, as well as Blue Grosbeak and Mississippi Kite. These birds all breed in the eastern US and don't have as far to go to reach us. They are all annual in extreme southwest Ontario, but much rarer in Bruce. This weather seems favorable for these species to me. Also seemed like a good week for a Kirtlands Warbler, study up on their song!

Next are more southern species. Think things that breed in Tennessee/Texas etc. Sciccor-tailed Flycatcher, Snowy Egret, Painted Bunting are some of the more regular of these birds. I could see any those with this weather. Maybe a weird Fork-tailed Fly type thing? could guess at crazy megas but I'll keep that to myself! 

Finally I bet there are a few rare shorebirds to be found, Willet, Avocet etc .

(note my rarity predictions are for the whole week, not just the next 2 days).

So yeah, something is showing up! Get out there