Migration Forecast - May 6th to May 9th

 

Migration certainly has ramped up since my last post! May 2nd - 4th saw a major increase in new arrivals.... 25 new birds for the county this year and an overall boom in songbird numbers. The dominant species were Yellow-rumped Warbler, Palm Warbler, White-throated Sparrow and Dark-eyed Junco. A lot of other birds were just starting to move in, but those species are all peaking around this time. A lot of the more obvious and coveted species are arriving now including;  Baltimore Oriole, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Indigo Bunting and Ruby-throated Hummingbird. These species tend to be easier to spot than smaller warblers, so when they arrive it's certainly conspicuous. For a full list of newly arrived birds check out my list on the left hand side of the screen. 

The rarity of the period was found by Zane Shantz at Millerake, when he spotted a Black Vulture in his yard for the 4th year in a row! Also Piping Plovers are back (one anyway) at Sauble.

Now on to the future.

I could basically sum up the next few days by saying they are rather boring from a birding perspective. Yes, it's May and a lot of birds will be around regardless of weather,  but don't expect a massive numbers of new birds like there was a few days ago. The cool thing now is, that even though the forecast is rather blah, there are likely rarities around from the last system waiting to be found!

- May 6

Rather uneventful..light north wind and relatively cool temps. The wind isn't very strong so stuff will likely still be moving.

- May 7

Likely similar to the previous day, maybe some local movement but not a "Omg there are new birds everywhere" day.

- May 8

Stronger north wind... again maybe some local movement... but if you had to do something other than birding it probably wouldn't be the worst thing : )

                       

- May 9

Some hope on the horizon? Big low pressure system moving up from the gulf.. right now it doesn't look too exciting (as it moves to the southeast of Ontario and fizzles out), but you never know, it's still a ways off.

 

~ Bird Predictions ~

Again it probably won't be too exciting, some rather local movement but no bonkers days. If it's nice overnight (not much wind and no rain) birds will move, which means we'll likely get some new stuff ~ just not great numbers. 

As far as new arrivals go, here are my guesses;

Fairly likely/likely 

- Dunlin

- Black-bellied Plover

- Semipalmated Plover

- Marsh Wren 

- Grasshopper Sparrow 

- Blue-winged Warbler 

- American Redstart 

- Maybe?

- Wilson's Phalarope 

- Semilpalmated Sandpiper 

- Least Sandpiper 

- Short-billed Dowitcher

- Tennessee Warbler

Rarities 

My best guess would be a feeder rarity... Harris's Sparrow, Lark Sparrow, Painted Bunting, Yellow-headed Blackbird (dare I say rare Oriole? Bullocks?) type things. Always hard to know where exactly, but Tobermory is always a good bet. Also maybe some county rarities...American Avocet, Willet, Long-billed Dowitchers. Oliphant or S Bruce? 

So not too exciting, but you never know!