Migration Forecast: May 10th - May 14th

 

  Since my last post migration has basically stalled. Yes, there are new birds popping up here and there and there are definitely more warblers around now... but there have been no insane birding days where there are birds everywhere. It has been a good week for lingering species though; Rough-legged Hawks, Snowy Owls and American Tree Sparrows are still present, more so in the northern part of the county.  A few late Golden Eagles were seen as well. There has been a noticeable increase in Evening Grosbeak sightings, multiple reports of flocks of 20+ birds around the county. Hopefully this is only the beginning, who knows.

There's still a Black Vulture being seen around Miller Lake, though with little consistency. A Lark Sparrow turned up at a private feeder on the northern peninsula, the 2nd one in the county this year. 

Now.. back to the future (of birding weather, not the movie)

For the next 5+ days this big area of high pressure is just hanging out in the Midwest, which for us means north wind. The plus about this (trying to find a bright side) is that high pressure usaully means sunny skies for us. Sure, it's not the best for spring migration, but it's May and you never know what will turn up. Looking at the NOAA 8-14 day outlook they're predicting a higher probability of above average temperatures for the Great Lakes region... so a glimmer of hope.

If you're wondering why I only do 3 or 4 days with my forecasts, it's because these models change a lot and the further ahead you go, the smaller the likelihood is that the prediction will come to fruition. 3 days tend to be decently reliable, but a week out is basically guess work so I prefer to do more, shorter posts.

- May 10

Fairly strong northwest wind. Decent for raptors just cruising around, but not too exciting for migration. 

- May 11

More, stronger northwest wind, possible rain and cool temps. Least exciting day of the week in my opinion. Only good thing is sometimes rain grounds shorebirds, so if it does rain check your shorebird spots.

- May 12

What do you know? More north wind! Likely no rain, but still pretty blah.

- May 13

Lighter north wind overnight. If the conditions are ok (no rain, light wind) I wouldn't be surprised if we see a small incease in songbirds. Birds have been held back for close to a week so they will likely want to move even if the wind isn't great .

- May 14

Basically the same as the 13th. Hardly any wind so I bet stuff will be moving. Still a few days out so who knows.

As you can see the tempature is pretty cool all week (note I have it set along the coast, so inland will be warmer, but you get the idea)

Birdcast basically shows the same thing, not much movement in the northeast for the next few days.

~ Bird Predictions ~

Guessing there will be a slow trickle this week, some new birds, but not great numbers. Again it's important to note that birds don't only move on south wind, it's just that south winds are better for massive movement & rare birds. I wouldn't be surprised if Evening Grosbeaks keep pushing through. Also maybe an increase in birds that arrived in early May but are just starting to increase in numbers now;  Bobolink, Ovenbird, Wood Thrush, Eastern Kingbird, Ruby-throated Hummingbird and the earlier warbler species. Birding along either coast could produce decent warbler numbers... they're around, just in small pockets. 

For new arrivals here are my best guesses

Fairly likely/likely 

- Blue-winged Warbler

- Dunlin

- Grasshopper Sparrow 

- Tennessee Warbler

- Gray-cheeked Thrush

- Blackpoll Warbler 

Maybe? 

- Black-billed Cuckoo

- Short-billed Dowitcher

- Semilpalmated Sandpiper 

- American Golden-plover

Rarities

Kind of a tough week to predict... I'll go with Glossy Ibis, a rare raptor and something weird in Tobermory (Bullocks Oriole, Blue Grosbeak). Maybe a county level rarity like a Long-billed Dowitcher or Willet? There's pelicans in Huron so hopefully they fly north. Not my best predictions but remember these are just guesses.