Migration Forecast -- May 20th - May 22nd

 Pretty exhausted from getting up pre-dawn for birding this week so I'm going to try and keep this brief. The last two days have been pretty good for birding in Bruce...but not crazy great. Were conditions good for migration? yeah... so why wasn't the birding superb? I have a few thoughts on that, of which I'll mention a few without going too deep into it...

(For starters there has been basically 0 rain, for migrating songbirds this is great as it means they can push north without being forced down by bad weather. For birding though it means birds haven't had a reason to stop in southern Ontario. We're still getting stuff, but I think a lot of birds are just trucking north way overhead. Morning flight observations have echoed this ~ lots of bird wayyy up northbound. Pelee hasn't seen any great days for this reason.

(I also feel like the way these long distance winds hit Ontario make a big difference. If the winds are strong southwest/west like they have been, birds riding those air currents may just go with the flow and miss us (Bruce co). Why follow Lake Huron up if the winds are pushing towards eastern Ontario? Also compared to some more defined centres of low pressure (which "sucks" birds up shoots them into southern ON.. more on that in a later post maybe ), this strong south wind over the midwest may encourage birds breeding in Northwestern ON to take a more western route. Bruce especially benefits from direct south winds I thimk (or southeast). This is just a personal theory & I'm just spitballing so who knows... more research needed !

So are the next few days looking better? Well... it's complicated.

- May 20

More long distance south winds. And yet again, relativity little rain in the way. I'd luvvv to see rain pass over Tobermory during the night, but I doubt it will happen. I know I've been saying this for the past week, but I think the birding will be quite good. Not a fallout day, but there will be new birds around. I'd advise birding the east side of the peninsula if possible, it's often good to go on the coast opposite to the direction of the wind.

- May 21

Pretty similiar to the 20th. Long distance south shifting to more west overnight. And yet again ... very little rain. I think on days where there's wind with a west component the birding is better on the Georgian Bay side ~ as migrants are pushed along that coast and it should offer more protection than the Huron side. But yeah, another good day for birding. 

- May 22

Winds aloft are basically west overnight. Still long distance south feeding into it ~ so it should be good, although maybe more from a rarity standpoint than just overall migration.

~ Bird Predictions ~

I'm Realllyyy hoping we get some rain to ground shorebirds & migrant songbirds (and because it's so dry around here), but if it doesn't happen the birding will still be good. It's peak season after all so the birding is always good! Without rain/something drastic though I don't see much potential for one of those big fallout days with birds everywhere. Later migants like cuckoos, empidonax flycatchers, Mourning, Bay-breasted, Blackpoll and Canada Warblers should start arriving in larger numbers, while early migrants including Palm Warbler and Yellow-rumped Warbler will get more scarce.

it's getting tough to predict new arrivals now as almost all of the common species are already here!

Likely/very likely 

- Ruddy Turnstone (meh)

- Cerulean Warbler

- Sedge Wren 

Maybe?

- Red Knot

- White-rumped Sandpiper 

- Ameican Golden-plover

Rarities

I basically covered this in my last post, so look at it for more in depth predictions. There was a Fork-tailed Flycatcher north of us by Sudbury today, so anything is possible! Some weird southwestern species... it's gonna happen. Besides crazy rarities it's getting to be a good time for uncommom county birds like Red Knot, Whimbrel & Connecticut Warbler. Keep your eyes open (coughKincardinepeople).

The author is in no way responsible if it nothing shows up though! Read the fine print people.