Migration Forecast - April 29 - May 4

 A lot has happened since my last post! 

Most of the birds predicted on the 22nd showed up, but a lot showed up that I wasn't expecting. Warblers a week or so ahead of normal including Northern Parula and Cape May were seen, also some other early birds like Bobolink, Red-headed Woodpecker and Baltimore Oriole. The major push happened on April 27th, with birds that were likely brought up on those winds discovered on 28th and 29th. A Lark Sparrow was found in South Bruce on the 28th, not surprisingly at a feeder.

Now on to the forecast 

- April 29

It will already be late on the 29th when this goes out, so most birders will already know what's going on. Anyway not too exciting, cooler than the previous days with not much migration. A lot of birds are around though, so there will still be new stuff  to see.

- April 30

Blah... strong NW wind and cold.. Don't expect much. Burr..

- May 1

Low pressure and SW wind off in the Midwest, but really just light west wind here. Stuff that is already in Ontario may move north if it doesn't rain, but don't expect a crazy nunbers day.

- May 2

Some fairly long distance south/southwest winds are forecasted overnight and into the day on May 2. There doesn't appear to be much rain in the way, so new birds should be able to get through. I think the southern counties (Essex, Lambton etc) will likely be better as rain may get in the way, but we'll have to wait and see.

- May 3

It you only focus on the wind maps it looks great... strong south/southwest wind all the way from the gulf coast.. but the rain maps tell a different story. There is meant to be a lot of rain over southern Ontario (the east part of the low), so that might shut down migration in our area. Again this is a few days out and could definitely change, but right now it looks pretty wet. Now I'm not saying it will be bad, I actually feel like it could be really interesting if the rain isn't too intense... but keep your expectations in check!

- May 4

After the system on the 3rd passes there will be a bit of a lull with north winds. The cool thing about this time of year onwards is that even if the weather isn't great, you still have a good chance to see new birds. This is because there are lots of birds that have come up with the previous system and just take time to be discovered.

~ Bird Predictions ~

Expecting the 30th to be the "bad" day, but after that things should pick up again. Saturday (May 1) could be decent, but the big increase will be on the 2nd/3rd. Yellow-rumped Warblers and White-throated Sparrows should be peaking, the right place (especially along the shore) could be packed with both. Also species like Broad-winged Hawk, White-crowned Sparrow, Palm Warbler and most of the swallows will be growing in numbers.

Aa far aa new birds for the county this year, here are my predictions

- Likely/very likely  

- Upland Sandpiper 

- Black-crowned Night-Heron

 - Common Tern

- Blue-gray Gnatcatcher

- Warbling Vireo  

- Dunlin

- Chimney Swift 

- Eastern Whip-poor-will

- Wood Thrush 

- Ovenbird

- Rose-breasted Grosbeak

- Veery

- Common Yellowthroat

Maybe?

- Black-bellied Plover

- Least Sandpiper

- Piping Plover

- Scarlet Tanager

- Great Crested Flycatcher

- Ruby-throated Hummingbird 

- Black-throated Blue Warbler

- Magnolia Warbler 

- Indigo Bunting 

Rarites 

 Come on Bruce... we haven't had a Lesser Black-backed Gull this year! I bet one will show up this week. For rarities I'll stick with Scissor-tailed Flycatcher... just because. Also American Avocet, Willet and Yellow-headed Blackbird seem likely (as far as rares go!). Also some feeder mega at Tobermory. Sparrow? Oriole? PABU? 

Anyway it's going to be fun. Get out there and May The Fourth Be with You!