Migration Forecast - April 22-28

 

 I haven't posted in a while becuase the weather has sucked... this past week has been cold with north winds and actually some snow.. and there really haven't been many new arrivals since the 10th of April. An early push of Palm Warblers showed up around the April 8th/9th in a few spots along Lake Huron. Typically palms arrive around the last few days of April/first few days of May here. 

There have been a few rarities in the last few days though, notably LeConte's Sparrow and Eared Grebe. Neither of these birds are really weather assisted (imo) . Eared Grebe is an annual minor rarity in southern Ontario, some seem to wander a bit east during spring migration. LeConte's Sparrow on the other hand is more of a Connecticut Warbler type thing. They breed in decent numbers far to the north of us, but due to their very sulky and secretive nature they basically pass through undetected. This was only the 2nd record of LeConte's for Bruce, but it and Nelson's are definitely annual in my opinion... they're just hard to find.

Anyway on to the forecast for the next week!

- Apr 22

Boring. North wind and very cool temps. 

- Apr 23

Cold with W wind.. some local stuff may be moving a bit, but still pretty boring weather from a migration standpoint.

- Apr 24

Ugh. Again, birds already in our area may move, but not very exciting.

- Apr 25

Some very strong south wind coming up the Midwest, but a high pressure system moving over northern Ontario means we likely won't see much excitement. 

- Apr 26

Yessssss. Finally. Very strong south winds coming all the way from the gulf coast into Ontario. 

- Apr 27

It seems like the low pressue system will be moving northeast slowly over the course of 3-4 days. This means prolonged south/southwest winds and (hopefully) a big push of new migrants. It's too early to say how rain will play into it, but if the predictions are right (haha) it should be a good few days.

 - Apr 28

More of the same goodness. This will likely be the last day of good weather as the low passes over Ontario and keeps moving north, however this is pretty far in the future so who knows how it will shake out.

~ Bird Predictions ~

We likely won't see much activity until the 26th, as soon at we get hit by those long distance south winds there will be an influx of new birds. Stuff like Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Savannah Sparrow, Barn Swallow, White-throated Sparrow and Yellow-rumped Warbler should be coming through in good numbers. If the weather is right maybe the first decent push of Broad-winged Hawks. Also wintering species like Rough-legged Hawk, Northern Shrike, Snow Bunting and Common Redpoll might use these tailwinds to exit our area en masse.

 As far as new birds go here are my guesses.

Fairly Likely 

- Black Scoter

- Cliff Swallow

- Bank Swallow

- Upland Sandpiper

- Lesser Yellowlegs

- Black-crowned Night-heron 

- Green Heron

- House Wren 

- Palm Warbler 

Maybe

- Common Tern

- Blue-headed Vireo

- Solitary Sandpiper 

- Blue-gray Gnatcatcher

- Black-throated Green Warbler 

- Nashville Warbler 

Rarities

The 25th of April is normally when rarity season kicks off in southern Ontario, however Bruce is normally a week or so later. For a guess I'll go with Scissor-tailed Flycatcher as the mega of the week.. just because. I also think there's a decent chance of a rarity showing up at some feeder by Tobermory (or elsewhere, the tub just tends to get more).  Something like a Lark or Harris's Sparrow. Maybe there will be a few lesser rarities too.. early Dickcissel? Yellow-throated Warbler? Some gull at Kincardine or the Taylor's yard.. I could go on.

Conclusion

Boring/birdless for the next few days, then ramping up as we go into next week (26th on). If there were rarities to be found I bet they'd show up after the 26th, or even after the system passes completely. Regardless of rarities next week should be fun with some new arrivals. After this week of puky weather it will be a nice change. Get out and enjoy it though, you never know if that will be our last "good" weather for a bit.