Monday 5 April 2021

Migration Forecast : April 5 -9

 Just going to do a quick post about the awesome weather for this upcoming week. There will be a low pressure system moving slowly up the Midwest for much of the week, so we will be enjoying the nice south wind and warm temps associated with it.



- April 5

It was apparent in many areas of the county today that a new surge of migrants have arrived. With a nice wind out of the southeast it was a pretty ideal setup for Bruce birding.. there was some rain over the southern part of the county in the morning, but besides that it was great for diurnal migration. First Field Sparrow of the year was seen in S Bruce, plus there was an overall increase in kinglets, yellow-rumps and sapsuckers.


- Apr 6

Strong wind out of the south/southwest is meant to continue all night and through the day, which should be awesome from a migration standpoint. There may be the odd isolated rain system... but as of now it looks pretty clear.



- Apr 7

Slightly lighter winds than the previous day & it looks like there might be more rain lurking around the Lake Huron area.. but it should still be pretty good.





- Apr 8

Pretty strong southeast wind blasting across southern Ontario.. and what appears to be a relatively rain-free path for migrating birds. Again this is still a few days out so I don't overly trust the models... but it will be what it will be! Southeast tends to be the best for Bruce County, as the birds seem to collect along the Lake Huron shoreline, so it could be good!



- Apr 9
Again, another solid day of south/southeast wind. There does appear to be some rain in the way, but who knows how that will play out. 



The tempature is meant to be fairly steady all week between 10°C and 17°C... so pretty ideal




~ Bird Predictions ~

So much beginning to move right now ~ Exciting times!

There should be a big influx in things like Golden-crowned Kinglet, Winter Wren, Brown Creeper, Eastern Bluebird, Eastern Pheobe, Blue-winged Teal, Northern Flicker, Tree Swallow & Great Blue Heron. Likely another push of Yellow-rumped Warblers, Ruby-crowned Kinglets and a lot of sparrow species (towhee, song, swamp, field, fox White-throated. Dark-eyed Juncos will also be peaking).

As for new arrivals here are my best guesses

Fairly likely 
- Pectoral Sandpiper 
- Great Egret
- Osprey 
- Vesper Sparrow
- Hermit Thrush
- Savannah Sparrow
- Brown Thrasher 

Maybe?
- Lesser Yellowlegs
- Pine Warbler 
- Caspian Tern
-  Barn Swallow 
- Black-crowned Night-heron 

Rarities 
Still pretty early in the spring for vagrants, but we could still get some stuff. For guesses I'll go with some county level rares.. Eurasion Wigeon, Black Vulture and Yellow-headed Blackbird (good time for them. Peak is now to April 20. Did a post on it last year). For something crazy how about a a county first Western Grebe?

Conclusion  
So to sum it up, it should be an awesome week of migration in southern Ontario (well, for early April). South Bruce almost always gets migrants first and this week will be no different, so places like the Kincardine Lagoons should be productive. North Bruce will start to see a big influx too, though likely not on the same scale. I recommend concentrating along the Lake Huron shoreline, but anywhere can be good really. The days with SE wind will be the best for hawkwatching, for those interested.

So yeah, should be fun! Get out there and bird : )

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