Early June Migration Forecast

 Haven't updated the site in a bit.. frankly because the weather hasn't been overly interesting & spring migration is almost over. Since the 26th it's been quite hot & sunny, and while southern Ontario has gotten some rain, it's still quite dry in Bruce County. There's been a small trickle of migrant songbirds ~ the odd Wilson's Warbler here and Bay-breasted Warbler there, but it basically feels like summer. There wasn't a single "fallout day" this spring, which contributed to the overall feeling that there weren't many birds. I may do a future post on how the spring of 2021 played out, haven't decided yet.

It is still the first week of June, which means that there are still birds migrating past in low numbers. The bulk of songbird migration has come and gone, but there are still shorebirds passing through. The next 7-10 days could still yeild uncommon species like Red Knot, Whimbrel and Ruddy Turnstone, just keep watching the coast! (especially on rainy days). 

Looking ahead to the future there are a few things to note. The one that stands out is the drought that's covering a lot of western North America right now. Of course this is brutal for people living there/crops etc, but I think it has some potential for interesting birding. This spring saw a big influx in Glossy/White-faced Ibis and Wilson's Phalarope reports across southern Ontario, which may have been in part due to drought in their breeding range. Some of these more western species disperse out of their normal haunts if extreme weather conditions make breeding unfavourable, which means they start showing up in the eastern part of the continent (so, Ontario). If the drought continues in the coming weeks I wouldn't be surprised to see more ibis reports and maybe some Dickcissels looking for new territory as well. Just something to ponder!

Drought map

I'm not doing my likely/maybe  predictions anymore this season because there really aren't any more likely spring migrants that haven't been seen in Bruce yet! As for rarity predictions... Scissor-tailed Flycatcher, Fork-tailed Flycatcher, Western Kingbird and a rare heron would be my best bets.

I don't plan on posting too much here in the coming weeks, at least not until "fall" migration  starts heating up in late July. In the meantime I'd love to hear some reader feedback! Where would you like to see thid blog go in the future? (Suggestions etc)

Wishing everyone a healthy, birdy summer : )

Shorebird/Rarity Alert -- May 26th

 Just wanted to write a quick post on tomorrows weather as it seems interesting..

Yesterday/today we've had long distance southwest winds, and although there hasn't been too much in Bruce there have been good birds in southern Ontario. The biggest highlight that comes to mind is a Royal Tern that was found at Point Pelee today (2nd Ontario record), so there are definitely rarities around. It may feel like summer, but we're still in peak rarity season here.

Overnight tonight/into tomorrow morning a large frontal boundary will be moving west to east and will likey have a lot of rain/possible thunderstorms associated with it. The conditions on the day that I put out my last shorebird alert (May 22) kinda fizzled... only light rain for 2 hours in Bruce ~ but this looks a lot more promising. The way this front of rain is hitting seems like it should be good for dropping shorebirds, so I recommend checking shorebird habitat all day tomorrow. Again when it's raining/just after the rain passes tend to be the most productive. If you're lakewatching, right when the rain is approaching can be great too. It's peak time right now to find uncommon shorebirds like Whimbrel, Ruddy Turnstone and Red Knot, so this weather could help by grounding a few. Also maybe something rare like Willet or a godwit?? Keep your eyes on the coast!

For those looking for sites to check, here are a few of the more traditional shorebird spots.

- Sauble Beach 

- Southampton Beach 

- Chalmers Pond 

- Oliphant Shoreline 

- Kincardine Harbour 

- Breakwall at Port Elgin Harbour  

- Ripley Lagoons

(Direction the storm is travelling)

Wind will be strong out of the west all day

As far as other rarities go, I wouldn't be surprised if an ibis or two showed up (it's been a great spring for them in southern Ontario). Maybe a rare southern heron if we're lucky. Also it seems like as good of a time as any for Bruce Mega Arctic Tern! Of course there are so many other possibilities, but those are a few guesses anyway.

Get out there and enjoy some good old storm birding : )

Shorebird Alert! May 22nd

Trying something different today, my first "alert" post.

Keeping this brief as I want it to go out ASAP..

After over a  week without rain, a band is finally passing over the peninsula this morning. This is especially good for shorebird watching, as these birds can be "dropped down" by rain. In peak migration season a lot of shorebirds leave the states and fly right over Ontario without stopping, so conditions like this help us birders to see them. The rain will likely only be around for a few hours, but I think it could still be good! Shorebirds often lift off soon after the rain is over (they don't really want to be here), so checking shorebird spots directly after/during the rain is best.

 

So go check your local shorebird spots! They may have nothing, but you never know if you don't look : ) 

If you need some suggestions for shorebird spots...

- Sauble Beach

- Southampton Beach

- Chalmers Pond

- Oliphant Shoreline

- Kincardine Harbour

- Breakwall at Port Elgin Harbour

Here's a peak at the current radar map

Good luck!

Migration Forecast -- May 20th - May 22nd

 Pretty exhausted from getting up pre-dawn for birding this week so I'm going to try and keep this brief. The last two days have been pretty good for birding in Bruce...but not crazy great. Were conditions good for migration? yeah... so why wasn't the birding superb? I have a few thoughts on that, of which I'll mention a few without going too deep into it...

(For starters there has been basically 0 rain, for migrating songbirds this is great as it means they can push north without being forced down by bad weather. For birding though it means birds haven't had a reason to stop in southern Ontario. We're still getting stuff, but I think a lot of birds are just trucking north way overhead. Morning flight observations have echoed this ~ lots of bird wayyy up northbound. Pelee hasn't seen any great days for this reason.

(I also feel like the way these long distance winds hit Ontario make a big difference. If the winds are strong southwest/west like they have been, birds riding those air currents may just go with the flow and miss us (Bruce co). Why follow Lake Huron up if the winds are pushing towards eastern Ontario? Also compared to some more defined centres of low pressure (which "sucks" birds up shoots them into southern ON.. more on that in a later post maybe ), this strong south wind over the midwest may encourage birds breeding in Northwestern ON to take a more western route. Bruce especially benefits from direct south winds I thimk (or southeast). This is just a personal theory & I'm just spitballing so who knows... more research needed !

So are the next few days looking better? Well... it's complicated.

- May 20

More long distance south winds. And yet again, relativity little rain in the way. I'd luvvv to see rain pass over Tobermory during the night, but I doubt it will happen. I know I've been saying this for the past week, but I think the birding will be quite good. Not a fallout day, but there will be new birds around. I'd advise birding the east side of the peninsula if possible, it's often good to go on the coast opposite to the direction of the wind.

- May 21

Pretty similiar to the 20th. Long distance south shifting to more west overnight. And yet again ... very little rain. I think on days where there's wind with a west component the birding is better on the Georgian Bay side ~ as migrants are pushed along that coast and it should offer more protection than the Huron side. But yeah, another good day for birding. 

- May 22

Winds aloft are basically west overnight. Still long distance south feeding into it ~ so it should be good, although maybe more from a rarity standpoint than just overall migration.

~ Bird Predictions ~

I'm Realllyyy hoping we get some rain to ground shorebirds & migrant songbirds (and because it's so dry around here), but if it doesn't happen the birding will still be good. It's peak season after all so the birding is always good! Without rain/something drastic though I don't see much potential for one of those big fallout days with birds everywhere. Later migants like cuckoos, empidonax flycatchers, Mourning, Bay-breasted, Blackpoll and Canada Warblers should start arriving in larger numbers, while early migrants including Palm Warbler and Yellow-rumped Warbler will get more scarce.

it's getting tough to predict new arrivals now as almost all of the common species are already here!

Likely/very likely 

- Ruddy Turnstone (meh)

- Cerulean Warbler

- Sedge Wren 

Maybe?

- Red Knot

- White-rumped Sandpiper 

- Ameican Golden-plover

Rarities

I basically covered this in my last post, so look at it for more in depth predictions. There was a Fork-tailed Flycatcher north of us by Sudbury today, so anything is possible! Some weird southwestern species... it's gonna happen. Besides crazy rarities it's getting to be a good time for uncommom county birds like Red Knot, Whimbrel & Connecticut Warbler. Keep your eyes open (coughKincardinepeople).

The author is in no way responsible if it nothing shows up though! Read the fine print people.

Migration Forecast -- May 18th - May 19th

 

Well, migration has been bananas since my last update. During the last two days the trees just exploded and full leaf out is only a few days away. This has certainly made viewing conditions more challenging in the forest. Saturday (May 15) and Sunday saw a massive influx of songbirds... warblers, tanagers, orioles etc. We went from a week behind schedule to ~wham~, full out spring migration. Numerous "late species" including Mourning Warbler and Olive-sided Flycatcher were seen, plus basically every expected warbler species. The county also saw a noticeable decrease in lingering birds like juncos and tree sparrows, one day they are everywhere and the next they're gone. 

The rarity highlights were Red-necked Phalarope at Kincardine Lagoons and a Yellow-throated Warbler on the Nothern Peninsula. 

The next week should be the best birding week of the spring for Bruce County, the weather looks phenomenal from a migration standpoint. Note that the next two days are great for migrants, but not so much for fallouts. There really isn't much rain in the way, so birds will be using this opportunity to push northward. Without rain to force them down a lot of birds will continue right over Bruce (and southern Ontario in general), so for us birders it may be a bit trickier to find the big warbler flocks. Don't get me wrong it will still be amazing.  

Because the weather is so exciting this week I'll be doing more frequent updates, so this post is only covering tomorrow and Wednesday. 

- May 18

Fairly light southwest/west winds overnight for Bruce Co. As you can see on the map below, the stronger winds are over the midwest and Ontario has relativity light/non existent winds. There is basically no rain in the way so that's good. I don't see tomorrow as the best day of the week, but it's peak season and birds will definitely move. I imagine it will be somewhat like today... just a lot of new birds around. As has been the case for the past few days, Kincardine Lagoons and the Lake Huron coast should be hopping, but anywhere can be good really. 

- May 19

Slightly better in my opinion. The long distance south wind is closer to Ontario and southern Ontario enjoys stronger (30-40kph) south/southwest winds. Again probably no rain overnight so it should be great for nocturnal migrant (and diurnal ones). Because there isn't rain to stop them it's not fallout weather, but there should be another big surge of migrants. 

(note all these wind maps are for 800mb heights, as that's where the birds are)

Have a peak at the precipitation maps for both days. As you can see there isn't too much rain in our area.

~ Bird Predictions ~

This whole week will be the peak of spring migration for us in southern Ontario, from a numbers perspective anyway. Every day this week will be see highs above 20°C, so it will be great weather to be outside in. I'm sure most birders know this, but especially when there's heat birding tends to be best in the hours around dusk and dawn, so get out early if you can. Expect warblers en masse, plus our first big push of flycatchers and vireos. Species like Baltimore Oriole and Indigo Bunting will be at their peak numbers this week as well. Say farwell to the lingering Rough-legged Hawks. They've had a good run staying this late, but these ideal conditions should be the push they need to leave. Also I almost guarantee the Cerulean Warbler are back at Greenock Swamp.

One piece of advice ~ if it rains check your local shorebird spot immediately! Good time of year to find knots, white-rumps, stilts etc... but they usually don't stay very long. I did a previous post on shorebirds so check that out if you want more info.

Here's my best bets for new arrivals (bird that haven't been seen in the county this year)

.

Likely/fairly likely 

- Yellow-bellied Flycatcher 

- Yellow-billed Cuckoo

- Sanderling 

- Semiplamated Sandpiper (!)

Maybe?

- Ruddy Turnstone

- Cerulean Warbler 

Rarities 

Peak rarity season so it's hard to say what exactly will show up... but something rare will this week I'm sure. I'll break down my predictions a bit by likelihood (as likely as a rarity can get).

The southern overshoots are always near the top of the list this time of year. I'm talking Yellow-throated, Worm-eating Kentucky and Hooded Warblers, as well as Blue Grosbeak and Mississippi Kite. These birds all breed in the eastern US and don't have as far to go to reach us. They are all annual in extreme southwest Ontario, but much rarer in Bruce. This weather seems favorable for these species to me. Also seemed like a good week for a Kirtlands Warbler, study up on their song!

Next are more southern species. Think things that breed in Tennessee/Texas etc. Sciccor-tailed Flycatcher, Snowy Egret, Painted Bunting are some of the more regular of these birds. I could see any those with this weather. Maybe a weird Fork-tailed Fly type thing? could guess at crazy megas but I'll keep that to myself! 

Finally I bet there are a few rare shorebirds to be found, Willet, Avocet etc .

(note my rarity predictions are for the whole week, not just the next 2 days).

So yeah, something is showing up! Get out there

Migration Forecast -- May 15th - May 17th

 

Since my last post not a lot has happened. There has been a small trickle of new birds, but no major movement. Today (May 14) there was a nice northbound movement of Bobolinks, Orioles and warblers, but besides that it hasn't been overly birdy. A few interesting things have been going on though. Notably the lingering northern species. Rough-legged Hawks and American Tree Sparrows are still around in decent numbers and there are still a few Snowy Owls and Golden Eagles in North Bruce. Also there's been an increase in Pine Siskins and Evening Grosbeaks, as both of these species seem to be peaking around now.

Now on to the forecast. 

After a week+ of being stuck in a blocking pattern with a huge high pressure system hovering over the northeast...there is finally hope. The high will begin to move east out over the Atlantic and dissipate by Sunday, then we get some much needed south winds. The next few days will see very light south winds, however the birds are a week or so behind schedule so they'll move. Most of southern Ontario should see a massive increase of songbirds by Monday and into the early week.

- May 15

Mix of very light south and north wind. Birds will definitely be moving, however I don't think it will be the big night. Still, there should be an influx of birds, especially in South Bruce. 

- May 16

Finally the high pressure is gone! Light south wind overnight (almost non-existent) and basically no rain in the way to interrupt movement. I think there will be a large increase in songbirds all over the county on Sunday, so get out if you can!

 

- May 17

More light south winds. Should be another great day, again likely not too much rain around to get in the way. Things are only going to get better after each day, so get out if you can. The whole county should be good.

As you can see there is some rain around, but as of now it doesn't look too bad. Clear path for northbound birds

Birdcast agrees, solid movement in the northeast. 

~ Bird Predictions ~

There should be a massive influx in songbirds over the next 3-4 days. All the warblers, orioles, grosbeaks, tanagers, bunting etc. A lot of the earlier warblers (palm, black-throated green, black-and-white etc) will be peaking, while later species like Magnolia, Tennessee and American Redstart will begin arriving in numbers. We should finally get some flycatchers too. Really the birding will just be great, so new birds everywhere. Say good bye to your lingering tree sparrows and juncos though!

Here are my predictions for new birds for Bruce this year 

Likely/very likely

- Bay-breasted Warbler 

- Blackpoll Warbler

- Canada Warbler 

- Black Tern

- Short-billed Dowitcher

- Semiplamated Plover

- Black-billed Cuckoo

- Philadelphia Vireo 

- Eastern Wood-pewee

Maybe?

- Yellow-billed Cuckoo 

- Sedge Wren

- Olive-sided Flycatcher 

- American Golden-plover

- Ruddy Turnstone

- Common Nighthawk 

Rarities 

Tough weather for predicting rarities. I'm going with a southern overshoot... something like Blue Grosbeak, Summer Tanager or White-eyed Vireo, southern warbler. Maybe another Lesser Black-backed Gull or two? Willet or something by Kincardine area? Who knows, birds are weird.

I'll update again on Monday ~ It's that time of year.

Also tried an impromptu weather video. Needs work

https://youtu.be/Nb0HmlcRnYg

Migration Forecast: May 10th - May 14th

 

  Since my last post migration has basically stalled. Yes, there are new birds popping up here and there and there are definitely more warblers around now... but there have been no insane birding days where there are birds everywhere. It has been a good week for lingering species though; Rough-legged Hawks, Snowy Owls and American Tree Sparrows are still present, more so in the northern part of the county.  A few late Golden Eagles were seen as well. There has been a noticeable increase in Evening Grosbeak sightings, multiple reports of flocks of 20+ birds around the county. Hopefully this is only the beginning, who knows.

There's still a Black Vulture being seen around Miller Lake, though with little consistency. A Lark Sparrow turned up at a private feeder on the northern peninsula, the 2nd one in the county this year. 

Now.. back to the future (of birding weather, not the movie)

For the next 5+ days this big area of high pressure is just hanging out in the Midwest, which for us means north wind. The plus about this (trying to find a bright side) is that high pressure usaully means sunny skies for us. Sure, it's not the best for spring migration, but it's May and you never know what will turn up. Looking at the NOAA 8-14 day outlook they're predicting a higher probability of above average temperatures for the Great Lakes region... so a glimmer of hope.

If you're wondering why I only do 3 or 4 days with my forecasts, it's because these models change a lot and the further ahead you go, the smaller the likelihood is that the prediction will come to fruition. 3 days tend to be decently reliable, but a week out is basically guess work so I prefer to do more, shorter posts.

- May 10

Fairly strong northwest wind. Decent for raptors just cruising around, but not too exciting for migration. 

- May 11

More, stronger northwest wind, possible rain and cool temps. Least exciting day of the week in my opinion. Only good thing is sometimes rain grounds shorebirds, so if it does rain check your shorebird spots.

- May 12

What do you know? More north wind! Likely no rain, but still pretty blah.

- May 13

Lighter north wind overnight. If the conditions are ok (no rain, light wind) I wouldn't be surprised if we see a small incease in songbirds. Birds have been held back for close to a week so they will likely want to move even if the wind isn't great .

- May 14

Basically the same as the 13th. Hardly any wind so I bet stuff will be moving. Still a few days out so who knows.

As you can see the tempature is pretty cool all week (note I have it set along the coast, so inland will be warmer, but you get the idea)

Birdcast basically shows the same thing, not much movement in the northeast for the next few days.

~ Bird Predictions ~

Guessing there will be a slow trickle this week, some new birds, but not great numbers. Again it's important to note that birds don't only move on south wind, it's just that south winds are better for massive movement & rare birds. I wouldn't be surprised if Evening Grosbeaks keep pushing through. Also maybe an increase in birds that arrived in early May but are just starting to increase in numbers now;  Bobolink, Ovenbird, Wood Thrush, Eastern Kingbird, Ruby-throated Hummingbird and the earlier warbler species. Birding along either coast could produce decent warbler numbers... they're around, just in small pockets. 

For new arrivals here are my best guesses

Fairly likely/likely 

- Blue-winged Warbler

- Dunlin

- Grasshopper Sparrow 

- Tennessee Warbler

- Gray-cheeked Thrush

- Blackpoll Warbler 

Maybe? 

- Black-billed Cuckoo

- Short-billed Dowitcher

- Semilpalmated Sandpiper 

- American Golden-plover

Rarities

Kind of a tough week to predict... I'll go with Glossy Ibis, a rare raptor and something weird in Tobermory (Bullocks Oriole, Blue Grosbeak). Maybe a county level rarity like a Long-billed Dowitcher or Willet? There's pelicans in Huron so hopefully they fly north. Not my best predictions but remember these are just guesses.