Migration Forecast - April 29 - May 4

 A lot has happened since my last post! 

Most of the birds predicted on the 22nd showed up, but a lot showed up that I wasn't expecting. Warblers a week or so ahead of normal including Northern Parula and Cape May were seen, also some other early birds like Bobolink, Red-headed Woodpecker and Baltimore Oriole. The major push happened on April 27th, with birds that were likely brought up on those winds discovered on 28th and 29th. A Lark Sparrow was found in South Bruce on the 28th, not surprisingly at a feeder.

Now on to the forecast 

- April 29

It will already be late on the 29th when this goes out, so most birders will already know what's going on. Anyway not too exciting, cooler than the previous days with not much migration. A lot of birds are around though, so there will still be new stuff  to see.

- April 30

Blah... strong NW wind and cold.. Don't expect much. Burr..

- May 1

Low pressure and SW wind off in the Midwest, but really just light west wind here. Stuff that is already in Ontario may move north if it doesn't rain, but don't expect a crazy nunbers day.

- May 2

Some fairly long distance south/southwest winds are forecasted overnight and into the day on May 2. There doesn't appear to be much rain in the way, so new birds should be able to get through. I think the southern counties (Essex, Lambton etc) will likely be better as rain may get in the way, but we'll have to wait and see.

- May 3

It you only focus on the wind maps it looks great... strong south/southwest wind all the way from the gulf coast.. but the rain maps tell a different story. There is meant to be a lot of rain over southern Ontario (the east part of the low), so that might shut down migration in our area. Again this is a few days out and could definitely change, but right now it looks pretty wet. Now I'm not saying it will be bad, I actually feel like it could be really interesting if the rain isn't too intense... but keep your expectations in check!

- May 4

After the system on the 3rd passes there will be a bit of a lull with north winds. The cool thing about this time of year onwards is that even if the weather isn't great, you still have a good chance to see new birds. This is because there are lots of birds that have come up with the previous system and just take time to be discovered.

~ Bird Predictions ~

Expecting the 30th to be the "bad" day, but after that things should pick up again. Saturday (May 1) could be decent, but the big increase will be on the 2nd/3rd. Yellow-rumped Warblers and White-throated Sparrows should be peaking, the right place (especially along the shore) could be packed with both. Also species like Broad-winged Hawk, White-crowned Sparrow, Palm Warbler and most of the swallows will be growing in numbers.

Aa far aa new birds for the county this year, here are my predictions

- Likely/very likely  

- Upland Sandpiper 

- Black-crowned Night-Heron

 - Common Tern

- Blue-gray Gnatcatcher

- Warbling Vireo  

- Dunlin

- Chimney Swift 

- Eastern Whip-poor-will

- Wood Thrush 

- Ovenbird

- Rose-breasted Grosbeak

- Veery

- Common Yellowthroat

Maybe?

- Black-bellied Plover

- Least Sandpiper

- Piping Plover

- Scarlet Tanager

- Great Crested Flycatcher

- Ruby-throated Hummingbird 

- Black-throated Blue Warbler

- Magnolia Warbler 

- Indigo Bunting 

Rarites 

 Come on Bruce... we haven't had a Lesser Black-backed Gull this year! I bet one will show up this week. For rarities I'll stick with Scissor-tailed Flycatcher... just because. Also American Avocet, Willet and Yellow-headed Blackbird seem likely (as far as rares go!). Also some feeder mega at Tobermory. Sparrow? Oriole? PABU? 

Anyway it's going to be fun. Get out there and May The Fourth Be with You!

Rarity Alert - April 27

Tomorrow looks like it will be awesome for migration in Bruce (and most of Ontario), so I thought I would do a quick post.

 There are some very strong southwest winds coming all the way from the gulf coast and Texas. The wind will start to pick up later today and will continue until Tuesday night, when it starts dying down and shifting west. 

As far as rain goes, it's looking pretty good! It's always hard to know exactly what will happen with rain in advance, especially in Bruce where Lake Huron really effects it. But looking at it now I see a massive, rain-free channel for birds all the way from the Texas coast. This means a huge number of migrating songbirds will take advantage of these tailwinds to move north.

So what's this mean from a rarity standpoint? 

Well it's still April, which means migration is just starting to ramp up here. I think this weather is interesting, but don't expect one of those late May days where there are songbirds everywhere. With that being said, I could definitely see some cool birds showing up because of this... I'm thinking early season overshoots like Yellow-throated Warbler, Summer Tanager or American Avocet. For more southern rarities, we could get lucky with a Scissor-tailed Flycatcher, Lark Sparrow or Painted Bunting. Maybe a Franklin's Gull? You just never know with rarities!

I feel like the Tobermory area could be good, but maybe a day or more after this passes. I think birds that go to feeders like Lark Sparrow, Harris's Sparrow, Yellow-headed Blackbird, Dickcissel etc often come up on these winds, but take a few days to find the feeders/get noticed. A few days of cold weather after a warm front also really helps drive birds to feeders. 

As far as advice for where to go, I would recommend the lakeshore. Birds are almost always more concentrated by the lake, but especially with winds like these. Stokes Bay, Pike Bay, Kincardine Lagoons, Hope Bay, Cabot Head... you get the idea! Is Lake Huron or Georgian Bay better? Really depends on the day.. and my personal preference is Huron, but they are usually both quite good. Also relating to my previous post on shorebirds, get out after rain passes and check your local shorebird spots. 

No matter what happens with rare birds, it will be a fun few days with (hopefully) some neotropical migrants and a lot of FOY birds. 

Anyway just wanted to get that out there! Migration season is here!

 

Migration Forecast - April 22-28

 

 I haven't posted in a while becuase the weather has sucked... this past week has been cold with north winds and actually some snow.. and there really haven't been many new arrivals since the 10th of April. An early push of Palm Warblers showed up around the April 8th/9th in a few spots along Lake Huron. Typically palms arrive around the last few days of April/first few days of May here. 

There have been a few rarities in the last few days though, notably LeConte's Sparrow and Eared Grebe. Neither of these birds are really weather assisted (imo) . Eared Grebe is an annual minor rarity in southern Ontario, some seem to wander a bit east during spring migration. LeConte's Sparrow on the other hand is more of a Connecticut Warbler type thing. They breed in decent numbers far to the north of us, but due to their very sulky and secretive nature they basically pass through undetected. This was only the 2nd record of LeConte's for Bruce, but it and Nelson's are definitely annual in my opinion... they're just hard to find.

Anyway on to the forecast for the next week!

- Apr 22

Boring. North wind and very cool temps. 

- Apr 23

Cold with W wind.. some local stuff may be moving a bit, but still pretty boring weather from a migration standpoint.

- Apr 24

Ugh. Again, birds already in our area may move, but not very exciting.

- Apr 25

Some very strong south wind coming up the Midwest, but a high pressure system moving over northern Ontario means we likely won't see much excitement. 

- Apr 26

Yessssss. Finally. Very strong south winds coming all the way from the gulf coast into Ontario. 

- Apr 27

It seems like the low pressue system will be moving northeast slowly over the course of 3-4 days. This means prolonged south/southwest winds and (hopefully) a big push of new migrants. It's too early to say how rain will play into it, but if the predictions are right (haha) it should be a good few days.

 - Apr 28

More of the same goodness. This will likely be the last day of good weather as the low passes over Ontario and keeps moving north, however this is pretty far in the future so who knows how it will shake out.

~ Bird Predictions ~

We likely won't see much activity until the 26th, as soon at we get hit by those long distance south winds there will be an influx of new birds. Stuff like Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Savannah Sparrow, Barn Swallow, White-throated Sparrow and Yellow-rumped Warbler should be coming through in good numbers. If the weather is right maybe the first decent push of Broad-winged Hawks. Also wintering species like Rough-legged Hawk, Northern Shrike, Snow Bunting and Common Redpoll might use these tailwinds to exit our area en masse.

 As far as new birds go here are my guesses.

Fairly Likely 

- Black Scoter

- Cliff Swallow

- Bank Swallow

- Upland Sandpiper

- Lesser Yellowlegs

- Black-crowned Night-heron 

- Green Heron

- House Wren 

- Palm Warbler 

Maybe

- Common Tern

- Blue-headed Vireo

- Solitary Sandpiper 

- Blue-gray Gnatcatcher

- Black-throated Green Warbler 

- Nashville Warbler 

Rarities

The 25th of April is normally when rarity season kicks off in southern Ontario, however Bruce is normally a week or so later. For a guess I'll go with Scissor-tailed Flycatcher as the mega of the week.. just because. I also think there's a decent chance of a rarity showing up at some feeder by Tobermory (or elsewhere, the tub just tends to get more).  Something like a Lark or Harris's Sparrow. Maybe there will be a few lesser rarities too.. early Dickcissel? Yellow-throated Warbler? Some gull at Kincardine or the Taylor's yard.. I could go on.

Conclusion

Boring/birdless for the next few days, then ramping up as we go into next week (26th on). If there were rarities to be found I bet they'd show up after the 26th, or even after the system passes completely. Regardless of rarities next week should be fun with some new arrivals. After this week of puky weather it will be a nice change. Get out and enjoy it though, you never know if that will be our last "good" weather for a bit. 

Shorebirding in Bruce County

 

   Well, there has certainly been a lot of movement since my last post! The last week has been crazy on the Bruce... 5 days of weather that could have been passed off as a week in the summer, with temperatures climbing up to 27 degrees! There weren't many record early birds seen but a lot arrived around a week ahead of normal. A massive surge of sparrows came in, as well as the first large push of Yellow-rumped Warblers. An exception was Palm Warbler, with a few birds seen along the Lake Huron coast. Palms typically arrive in late April (my earliest record is the 20th), so they certainly pushed north early. The highlight of the week was a Eurasian Wigeon at Isaac Lake, which was a one-day-wonder on April 8.

On the finch front Purple Finches have started popping up around the county and the first apparent migrant Evening Grosbeaks were seen. Previously this year the few evenings that stuck around were spread out at feeders, but the sighting of a few northbound flocks hopefully is the beginning of the big return flight of them. 

So today I want to try something a little different than the last few posts (forecasts) and focus a bird on the bird finding side of things, specifically shorebirds.

For Bruce County listers like me, shorebirds are the bane of our existence. We see reports from neighbouring Huron County of all the species we want but never get (turnstones, godwits, dowitchers, knots etc) and wonder why we can't get them here. Now Bruce used to be better, when Lake Huorn was down and there were large, shorebird-filled mudflats all along the coast. But in recent years the lake levels have been crazzyy and the water is much too high for waders in most places. Modelling suggests that there should be a drop this year, but I doubt it will be enough to get the shoreline back.

So what's the point of this post? Well I have some ideas on what we could be doing better and thought I'd share.

Generally shorebirds migrate high & fast, and by that I mean at least a kilometer above the surface. In the spring they pass through our area quickly, as they're trying to get to their northern breeding grounds as fast as they can. The MOTUS towers in the area pick up Red Knots annually.. and we get nothing. A lot of shorebirds have already fattened up for migration and just keep flying, passing overhead undetected. And the small numbers that do stop usually stay for no longer than a few hours. 

Currently these are the main shorebird locations in Bruce 

Birders typically check these sites whenever they are out in the area, so what else can be done? It's luck right? They are there or they aren't. Well weather actually plays into it a lot, particularly "bad" weather .

 As I said before, shorebirds typically migrate high up, so they won't stop unless they  have to. If a rain system passes through shorebirds often drop down and wait it out until it clears before they can continue on. A good example of this was a Long-billed Dowitcher I found at Oliphant last year. It was a very rainy/windy day in late April so I decided to check out the coast. There really wasn't much habitat at Oliphant due to high water, but the heavy rain forced down a massive flock of yellowlegs (150), as well as some peeps and the dowitcher. I had checked that same site all month and had seen basically nothing. So it goes to show that bad weather = birds. And as soon as the weather improved that day the birds left!

So especially in April/May, if you want a higher chance of seeing shorebirds, watch the weather maps and when it rains check your local flooded fields/shorelines/ponds. Now not all rain is equally good at dropping birds. If the system is covering all of southern Ontario, the migrants may be way down at Hillman marsh and Bruce will be relatively  quiet. So the "best" setup (in my opinion) is an isolated band of heavy rain coming in off of the lake, which migrating shorebirds flying north would "hit" and be forced to drop down. I know a lot of birders don't like birding in the rain, but when the rain clears the birds are often gone... so go out while it's raining or just after the storm passes and check areas with water!

As far as rarities go I really like fast paced low pressure systems, which could bring things like Willets and American Avocets into the county. I think the best bet would be to start with a lakewatch as the front approaches, as I've sometimes seen shorebirds arrive at the same time as the rain or slightly before the it hits. Then when the rain is overhead, check out spots like ponds to see if anything has dropped in.

So there's some confusing/maybe helpful information!

I'll post another forecast sometime this week, though the weather for the next 2 weeks looks cold/not too exciting. Hopefully that will change! 

Migration Forecast : April 5 -9

 Just going to do a quick post about the awesome weather for this upcoming week. There will be a low pressure system moving slowly up the Midwest for much of the week, so we will be enjoying the nice south wind and warm temps associated with it.

- April 5

It was apparent in many areas of the county today that a new surge of migrants have arrived. With a nice wind out of the southeast it was a pretty ideal setup for Bruce birding.. there was some rain over the southern part of the county in the morning, but besides that it was great for diurnal migration. First Field Sparrow of the year was seen in S Bruce, plus there was an overall increase in kinglets, yellow-rumps and sapsuckers.

- Apr 6

Strong wind out of the south/southwest is meant to continue all night and through the day, which should be awesome from a migration standpoint. There may be the odd isolated rain system... but as of now it looks pretty clear.

- Apr 7

Slightly lighter winds than the previous day & it looks like there might be more rain lurking around the Lake Huron area.. but it should still be pretty good.

- Apr 8

Pretty strong southeast wind blasting across southern Ontario.. and what appears to be a relatively rain-free path for migrating birds. Again this is still a few days out so I don't overly trust the models... but it will be what it will be! Southeast tends to be the best for Bruce County, as the birds seem to collect along the Lake Huron shoreline, so it could be good!

- Apr 9

Again, another solid day of south/southeast wind. There does appear to be some rain in the way, but who knows how that will play out. 

The tempature is meant to be fairly steady all week between 10°C and 17°C... so pretty ideal

~ Bird Predictions ~

So much beginning to move right now ~ Exciting times!

There should be a big influx in things like Golden-crowned Kinglet, Winter Wren, Brown Creeper, Eastern Bluebird, Eastern Pheobe, Blue-winged Teal, Northern Flicker, Tree Swallow & Great Blue Heron. Likely another push of Yellow-rumped Warblers, Ruby-crowned Kinglets and a lot of sparrow species (towhee, song, swamp, field, fox White-throated. Dark-eyed Juncos will also be peaking).

As for new arrivals here are my best guesses

Fairly likely 

- Pectoral Sandpiper 

- Great Egret

- Osprey 

- Vesper Sparrow

- Hermit Thrush

- Savannah Sparrow

- Brown Thrasher 

Maybe?

- Lesser Yellowlegs

- Pine Warbler 

- Caspian Tern

-  Barn Swallow 

- Black-crowned Night-heron 

Rarities 

Still pretty early in the spring for vagrants, but we could still get some stuff. For guesses I'll go with some county level rares.. Eurasion Wigeon, Black Vulture and Yellow-headed Blackbird (good time for them. Peak is now to April 20. Did a post on it last year). For something crazy how about a a county first Western Grebe?

Conclusion  

So to sum it up, it should be an awesome week of migration in southern Ontario (well, for early April). South Bruce almost always gets migrants first and this week will be no different, so places like the Kincardine Lagoons should be productive. North Bruce will start to see a big influx too, though likely not on the same scale. I recommend concentrating along the Lake Huron shoreline, but anywhere can be good really. The days with SE wind will be the best for hawkwatching, for those interested.

So yeah, should be fun! Get out there and bird : )